Bitcoin (BTC) is about to test hodlers with a “mid cycle lull” before starting a bull run in late 2024, a new BTC price model states.
According to its creator, popular analyst CryptoCon, the “November 28th Cycles Theory” demands the BTC price all-time high in 2025.
Countdown to BTC price “bull run launch”
Amid debate over the nature of the current Bitcoin four-year price cycle, CryptoCon believes that all may be simpler than many imagine when it comes to how BTC/USD behaves at a given time.
Unveiling the November 28th chart on X (formerly Twitter), he delineated the date as a key pivot point in the year, along with a three-week period either side.
“Using 4-year time cycles against my Theory, produces Bitcoins exact behavior in time since its inception. Cycles are centered around the date of the first halving Nov 28th,” he explained.
“Bitcoin price action began at the first bottom October 8th, 2010. This is where cycle curves peak, every 4 years. Tops and bottoms come +/- 21 days from Nov 28th at their appropriate times on the curve. Tops on the upswing, bottoms on the pinnacle.”
The chart describes November 28 as the date Bitcoin sees a “bull run launch” every four years. The last was in 2020, when BTC/USD broke beyond its prior all-time high (ATH) to hit its current $69,000 record a year later.
The next point of interest is thus November 2024. Until then, BTC price action will spend its time in a “mid cycle lull.”
“After Bitcoin bottoms, price makes an early first cycle move (orange) and enters into a mid-cycle lull,” CryptoCon continued.
“This is the longest part of the cycle, where Bitcoin spends time around the median price (half of previous ATH), until the curve bottoms.”
He added that Bitcoin had “almost certainly” seen its early top, referencing the $31,800 local highs from July this year.
A Bitcoin “bull market fakeout”
As Cointelegraph reported, opinions on where BTC price action will go into the 2024 block subsidy halving differ.
Related: Bitcoin halving can take BTC price to $148K by July 2025 — Pantera Capital
Some argue that modest gains will be all that hodlers will see before the event, scheduled for April next year.
In an interview with Cointelegraph this week, Filbfilb, co-founder of trading suite Decentrader, nonetheless delivered a $46,000 target for the halving, with $35,000 slated for year end.
In his latest newsletter published on Sep. 5, meanwhile, CryptoCon summarized 2023 BTC price behavior as a “bull market fakeout.”
“This makes it appear as if the bull market has begun with the trigger of many signals, but then at some point, price fails to continue,” he wrote.
“This is the most convincing example we’ve seen of this yet. Personally, I think there is still some time to go for that and I am patiently awaiting its completion.”
BTC/USD traded at $26,200 at the time of writing on Sep. 8, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.